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The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report for January 2018 predicts global growth this year at 3.1%, slightly higher than 3% last year. The cause is that investment, manufacturing and trade are all recovering. In addition, developing countries benefit from rising commodity prices.
China's growth will continue to slow this year. Photo: Reuters
2018 is going to be the first year the world's economy has run out or nearly its capacity since the financial crisis. Stagnation in the economy is forecasted no longer. So policymakers need to find initiatives to promote long-term growth, rather than just relying on fiscal and monetary policy to boost short-term growth.
"The trend of global growth is a good sign, but it's not a compliment now," said Jim Yong Kim, the bank's chairman. He also said that this is a great investment opportunity in human resources and facilities. If policymakers around the world focus on key areas, they can help their country improve productivity, create more jobs, fulfill early goals of extreme poverty and share prosperity.
In East Asia and Pacific, the region's expected growth is expected to fall to 6.2% this year, from 6.4% last year. Growth in China will slow due to restructuring, to 6.4% this year. This will partly offset the increase in the rest of the region.
In Vietnam, growth for the period 2018-2020 is still strong, with 6.5% per year, thanks to agricultural production and export-oriented production. Rapid credit growth and limited policy buffers, however, remain a risk. The GDP growth rate of 6.5% is also lower than 6.81% in 2017i.
Globally, the World Bank has said that in the long run, growth potential - measured by the growth rate of the economy in the case of labor and capital used - will slow down. This could threaten the potential for improving the living standards and poverty reduction process in the world. In addition, the global economy is still facing many risks, such as sudden financial tightening, escalating trade protection or geopolitical tensions.
Hà Thu - Vnexpress.net